What kind of backer are you? And the crucial importance of correct staking.
The simple choice you must make between more profit, or more winners.
Having worked in this business for the thick-end of 30 years, I’ve come across pretty much every betting system, staking plan and backing method that you care to name.
And these work to greater or lesser degrees, depending on some key factors (mainly the volume, frequency and strike rate of the bets themselves, added to the amount of funds you have available at any given time).
But probably the most important element in determining the success or failure of any staking strategy that you employ, comes down to one simple choice… what kind of backer are you?
Are you someone who will do anything in order to make the biggest profit…
Or are you happy to settle for a “solid return”, with a more stress-free ride.
This is something I often think about, and make a point of asking members of my various betting services. Because it is fundamental to how you act as a backer, and it is the foundation on how you go about generating, maintaining, and then growing, your betting profits.
Now I recently wrote to clients of the Golf Insider about this very subject, and I want to share the contents with you here.
The reason being, if you understand what kind of bettor you are, then you will be in a much better place when it comes to utilising, and maximising, the funds at your disposal.
Here’s the email I sent out. Read it carefully.
It goes like this…
On Tuesday, I got an email from a new member.
And he (Richard) asked me a very simple, but very important, question…
“Is it better to bet with the bookmaker with the highest odds, or with the most places?”
Now my reply to him made me think about something I’ve talked about previously in various updates over the past few months… namely, how best to stake your bets with the Golf Insider.
But let me stress, what follows below isn’t the finished article in terms of everything I planned to say on the subject…
That said, I think it’s relevant enough to share it with you now. To better enable you to cash-in on our industry insider’s expert information.
So by all means take a couple of minutes to read through what I have to say, mindful that more will follow on this topic in due course.
But for now I hope it provides a little food for thought…
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Hi Richard,
In terms of your question about the best way to stake your bets on the Golf Insider, I have to say there isn’t one simple method that will suit every individual member.
Because like any betting service, or investment system you might follow, a wide range of choice is on offer when it comes to bet selection and stake configuration.
[In fact it’s something I’ve written about in some detail on my website – click here to read more about EW Betting]
And what this discussion generally boils down to is this…
Do you want to win more money?
Or back more winners?
Because you can’t have both, but you have to choose one.
And making this choice will ultimately rest on an individual member’s risk profile… in other words, how much money do they want to win, compared to what lengths are they prepared to go to in order to win that sum of money.
Now most backers will answer “I want to win as much money as possible, Matthew – OBVIOUSLY!!” while in practice, experience has shown, they lack either the mental resolve (i.e. patience) or the bankroll to faithfully pursue this approach.
And I say this, because the best way to make the most money from the service, from the figures I’ve studied, is to back win-only.
At my latest audit, there had been 2,068 outright Tournament Winner bets since 2014, which have returned 2,826 points if backed to a level 1 point win-only stake… that’s a profit of 758 points = a whopping 36.65% ROI.
And then if you include placing your bets on Betfair, which will add at least another 10% onto these figures (due to the exchange’s inflated odds in the win-only market) and you’d be looking at something in excess of 40%.
So what’s the catch..? Just 54 winners in 2,068 bets. That’s a strike rate of 2.6%.
Could members handle this? No. And as much as some might say they could stomach such figures, in reality they couldn’t.
So despite this strategy being proven to make the most profit, I know (and I’m sure you’ll understand) that 9 out of 10 members, actually far more than that, simply wouldn’t be able to handle it.
Either too little fortitude up-top, or a lack of adequate funds, would see them fail within weeks, if not days.
That said, it’s still a great way to back “if” you have all the requirements – mental and financial!
Next option… split stakes (but not EW, please note).
This is a halfway house, a compromise if you like, and something I am working on at the moment. I need to get a decent sample set of data together in order to make a better informed judgement.
And the strategy is simple… half your stake is placed win-only as above, either with a conventional bookie or, better still, on the exchange.
And the other half is placed in either the Top 10 or Top 20 market.
Why? Because with most High Street firms offering anything from 5 to 8 each-way places on a standard golf tournament, by covering either 10 or 20 places, you’re giving yourself anything up to 15 more chances to collect a payout.
Of course, if you hit a tournament winner, you will collect less (overall) than if placing 100% of your stake win-only… but the 50% you invest in the “place market” will hit with much greater regularity and so keep your bank ticking over.
And to date the 2,068 outright Tournament Winner bets have returned over 650 winners in the Top 20 market.
So this is a second alternative. But one, as I say, that needs a little more investigation before I can recommend it hand-on-heart.
This then leaves a third and fourth option…
Which is to back in the classic each-way sense, betting with a regular bookmaker.
And here you either…
(i) take the the biggest win-price on offer, regardless of the number of EW places available
(ii) take the most EW places on offer, irrespective of the outright odds available
This is a trade-off. And one that goes back to an individual’s own risk profile.
I know, as most members will understand, that you’ll make more money long-term betting win-only as opposed to each-way. Granted, this can be affected by the number of outright winners you back, and the precise odds of the placed bets… but generally speaking win-only betting is more profitable.
And by using this logic, you will win more money over the long run if you follow (i) and take the highest odds, irrespective of the EW terms. Because most of your profit will come when a golfer actually wins a tournament.
But, as I touched on above, if you prefer more winners, and are prepared to sacrifice a little top-end profit for this, then (ii) is the obvious call. Here you’ll certainly visit the payout counter more often.
Question: Why does the Insider appear to switch between both these options? Sometimes going for higher odds, other times more EW places.
This is down to his value judgement as to a golfer’s expected performance.
As you know, some players are real steady performers. Week-in, week-out they play solid golf, and they consistently finish near the top of the leaderboard… but struggle to win. Others, however, are hot-and-cold, streaky players, who either win or finish nowhere.
So, putting it very simply, the advice is changed to fit the specific profile of the player in question.
Now on reading all this advice about how to stake your bets, you could easily end up thinking… thanks for the information, but what do I do now?
Well, as I’ve explained. I can’t make the decision for you as to how you stake your bets.
You have to decide for yourself.
And this choice will revolve around your own preference – more profit, or more winners.
Not happy with that? Well, I could just say back win-only on Betfair. You’ll win the most money this way. But I really don’t think this advice would work for the vast majority of backers.
My sneaking suspicion is the halfway-house method, the win-only + place market approach will probably prove to be the best, but I’d like to see more data before I recommend this as “the best way to stake golf bets”.
Anyway, I hope this article has helped you, if nothing else to think about your own betting, and to what kind of backer you really are.
Kind Regards,
Matthew
P.S. Not got a Betfair account? You absolutely need one if you want to make more money from your betting. Click here now and get your £20 sign-up bonus.
So there you have it.
Even though the example service here is the Golf Insider, the styles of betting I talk about in my email to Richard, and the underlying theme about the importance of deciding what kind of bettor you are… this is crucial to your long-term success, whatever you bet on.
More to the point, it’s crucial for your mental well-being!
So do please spend a few minutes thinking on this subject. It will be time very well spent.
OPINION: Pardon my French but betting is not a “p*ssing contest”. It’s not a macho (or the female equivalent) exercise in who can stake the most and win the most… or lose the most, if you’re not careful. It is, as I am at pains to stress, a personal practice that has to suit (a) your pocket and (b) your individual risk/reward profile. In other words, you have to bet in a way that both makes you money, but doesn’t constantly drive you to the depths of despair. And if you do get the balance right, then for you can make money betting on golf, horseracing or any other sport you choose. What’s more, you’ll do it better, more enjoyably, and for much longer!
