Taking data analysis up a notch

Why when studying results, more depth leads to a better understanding of the numbers
 

I’ve written before about the way in which we look at data…

In this case, the results of the various betting services we either subscribe to, or are thinking of joining at some point.

And in the course of this analysis I’ve stressed the importance of being thorough with the depth of our research.

Taking our time, trying to include as much data as we can (perspective is everything!), and not rushing to premature conclusions.

Basically, trying to be as objective and scientific as we can.

To concentrate on, in the famous words of Dragnet… “just the facts ma’am”.

That’s all we should be interested in.

So when it comes to my own study of betting services, I thought it worthwhile to share with you an example of what I do.

It relates to a relatively new service (Racing Intelligence).

This highly profitable horseracing betting service is operated by a well-connected industry “fixer” who has a wide experience of working within the betting industry, both at home and abroad.

A back-story that tends to make my ears prick up…

But this is only going to make send an introductory email, maybe speak to him on the phone.

What really matters is the kind of results/profits he’s able to produce.

So before we started working together on a live service, one which you can join yourself now (click here) I wanted to do some homework on his results.

To better acquaint myself with how he operates, and the style, tempo and profitability of his output.

What you will see therefore, when you click on the link below and open the PDF file I put together of his results, is the sort of granular research I go into before looking to sign-up a new contact.

And it goes back to my original point, about being meticulous and studying the data to the nth degree.

After all, you pore over the form of a horse that you’re looking to back…

Exact same applies here.

That’s why, personally, I look at any set of results I’m given from a variety of angles.

Now, month-to-month results are something of an industry norm. But personally I find this a very arbitrary period of time over which to record or analyse any set of results.

Frankly, it’s too short. And whilst I know many members pay monthly, and so judge a service monthly (which is wrong!!!) I play the game – certainly when it comes to my in-house research.

But more than this I like to drill down further…

I look at results by price range, by bet type (win or EW), by stake (where applicable), by location (more for marketing purposes than anything else), and even by days of the week (again, slightly random).

What I’m looking for is a service which stands up to interrogation from multiple angles.

A bit like a rope is stronger, the more strands it has within it.

The more robust a service will be if it stands up to scrutiny from numerous different perspectives.

And in the case of Racing Intelligence from every viewpoint…

… it came back with profits right across the board. Not bad eh?

Because what we don’t want…

Is a service where all the profits come in just one month, or from one massive winning bet, or one type of race/bet – which may prove hard to get on.

You see what I’m driving at?

And what I’m doing isn’t rocket-science. I’m not an expert of the likes of Excel.

But should you ever get results, a few simple formulae (think that’s the plural?!) can uncover some really interesting things about the service in question.

Which is why with these, I was more than happy with the fact that however which way I interrogated the results, the data seemed to suggest a service that was robust and wasn’t overly reliant on one short burst of good form, or one method of betting that was profitable, yes, but not massively practical.

Here’s the link to the results

(It’s a PDF file which most computers should be able to open, if not just drop me a line).

 

OPINION: Now of course despite all the pre-race form study we might do, the horse we eventually back might not win. That’s betting. And the same goes with a service we join, it might not return the required level of profit as soon as we sign-up. But it stands to reason, that by doing the prep work we give ourselves a much better chance of long-term success.