ROI vs Profit: Which Is Better?

Numbers that matter. Or figures that flatter.
 
Enter into any serious conversation about sports betting performance and two numbers will dominate the discussion…

ROI (Return on Investment) and absolute profit.

Both matter. Both tell a story.

But they do not always tell the same story.

And when they differ, choosing which one to chase can be the difference between a strategy that looks impressive on paper… and one that actually puts a meaningful amount of money in your pocket.

This isn’t some kind of abstract debate.

It’s one of the most practically important questions any backer/investor should ask themselves…

Would you rather join a service which returns 22% on a modest stake, or one returning 9% on a much larger one?

The ROI enthusiast points to the first.

The guy paying his mortgage points to the second!

Let’s work through why volume (more bets, more turnover, more activity) often wins the argument where it counts most: in cold, hard cash.
 

But first, let’s just clarify the terms here…

 
Before building the case, clarity of the definitions is essential.

ROI (Return on Investment) is expressed as a percentage and calculated as:

ROI = (Net Profit ÷ Total Amount Staked) × 100

It measures bet efficiency you could say – how much you earn relative to every pound staked.

It’s often a metric beloved by those marketing services, because a 15% ROI can sound extraordinary to the uninitiated.

Absolute Profit is simply the total cash returned above your total stakes.

The physical number sitting in your account after all bets are settled. It does not care about percentages. It pays bills.
 

A good example to illustrate the point

 
Let’s examine two backers – “John” and “Keith” –  both operating with identical strike rates (the ratio of winning bets to total bets placed).

Both are disciplined, both are profitable, and both are following strategies with genuine positive expected value.

The only variable is volume.

Same strike rate.

Same average odds.

Same stake size.

The only difference is how many bets each one places.

John boasts an ROI more than double that of Keith – and in many “tipster circles” he would be celebrated for it.

But Keith takes home £2,700 more in actual money by the end of the year.

Which one had the better year? (no pun intended!)

 

Why ROI can be misleading…

 
ROI is a measure of quality per unit.

It’s an enormously useful metric for comparing two strategies or tipsters on a like-for-like basis, and for identifying where your edge is biggest.

But it becomes dangerous when treated as the primary goal rather than, how can I put it… a diagnostic tool.

Consider the parallel in financial markets.

A hedge fund returning 25% annually sounds spectacular – until you learn it manages £2 million in assets.

Meanwhile, a larger fund returning 11% manages £800 million.

The second fund is generating vastly more real cash wealth for its investors, even though its percentage return is less than half.

As a saying widely attributed to Wall Street goes…

“It’s not about the percentage, it’s about the money. Percentages don’t pay for dinner.”

Legendary investor, and favourite on-tap expert in these articles of mine, Warren Buffett himself has addressed this tension.

His firm [Berkshire Hathaway] has actually seen percentage returns decline as the company has grown – because deploying billions of dollars limits the nimble, high-ROI opportunities available to smaller operators.

Buffett has acknowledged this himself, noting that with smaller sums he could generate significantly higher percentage returns. But the absolute wealth created by Berkshire at scale dwarfs what a high-ROI niche operation could ever achieve.

As the man himself states…

“A fat wallet is the enemy of superior investment results.”

The same principle applies directly to the betting world as we know it.
 

The Case for Volume: More Bets = More Profit

 
If your strike rate and average odds remain constant ( a crucial assumption to this argument) then increasing volume is essentially a multiplier applied to your edge.

Every additional bet placed at a positive expected value is an incremental unit of profit.

This is why professional gamblers, like trading firms, think in terms of throughput or volume as much as, if not more than, margin.

High-frequency trading desks operate on razor-thin margins per trade but execute millions of transactions.

The aggregate profit is enormous precisely because of volume, not despite it.

So don’t be afraid to have a  bet.

Several in fact!!
 

Potential drawbacks of betting more

 
Of course, it’s all very well advocating the placement of more bets.

But of course this doesn’t come without its own inherent issues.

Those who bet more will have greater capital exposure, as more bets mean more money at risk at any given time. Drawdowns may be larger (in cash terms) which tests patience and discipline.

More bets = more time. John’s more selective approach above may reflect not laziness but a genuine scarcity of good opportunities in his chosen markets. Or else the time to locate and back them himself.

Likewise there can be “bookmaker interference”. As a backer placing 1,000 winning bets a year is more visible, than one placing 200.

More highs (and lows). An increase in bet volume means more decisions, more variance to absorb, and more emotional stimulation, whether up or down. This can lead to bad practice, poor staking decisions, even missing bets/winners through battle fatigue.

“The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”

Wise words from Benjamin Graham, author of “The Intelligent Investor”.
 

When the Numbers Align: The Sweet Spot

 
The ideal position is not simply “bet as much as possible.”

It is to maximise volume without compromising the integrity of the underlying edge.

Quality and quantity.

This means:

Remember these words…

“The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.”

Victor Sperandeo, (aka “Trader Vic”) a hugely successful American trader and author.

The parallel for backers is exact.

Volume is your ally when it is disciplined. It becomes your enemy when it is forced.

Again, a sentiment we should all embrace.

And one final word…

At the end of a betting year, your bank account does not display your ROI. It displays a figure – a real, spendable, tangible figure.

By that measure, the argument for volume is compelling and, on balance, decisive.

 

OPINION: A higher ROI is a beautiful thing. It signals efficiency, edge quality, and disciplined selection. But if a lower ROI, sustained across a meaningfully larger number of bets, delivers significantly more cash at year’s end (while the core strike rate holds firm) then volume wins. We do not bet to post impressive percentages. We bet to make money. The bettor who ends the year with £4,500 in profit has had a better year than the one holding £1,800, regardless of how the ratios compare. A little extra time, a little more research, and the willingness to seek out more opportunities is not a burden – it is the work. And in betting, as in life, the people willing to do more of the right work tend to end up with more of the right results.