A winner’s a winner – right?
Are you guilty of this way of thinking? I hope not.
So this particular blogpost has been sparked by a bet, a potential bet in fact (and more about this in a moment) from a source who is currently proofing bets to me.
Now just a little back-story…
I’m looking to start a horseracing betting service which fits a very specific brief.
One which will suit both myself and members in equal measure, in that it’ll be a low-volume, high(er) strike-rate operation… one that is focussed on delivering a consistent level of profit.
Bets will be predominantly (although not exclusively win-only) and the price range for the selections will be broadly speaking around 6/4 to 5/1. A price range that should be commensurate to delivering the aforementioned high strike rate, low volatility that most punters crave.
What’s not to like, you might well say?
Well in theory, nothing.
This is the type of service that I know has commercial appeal but, crucially, it will resonate with most backers. Because despite their often fanatical enthusiasm on joining a new service… give it a couple of weeks of not even poor, just average results – and they’re done. Out the door, towel thrown, pram de-toyed.
So what better way to keep members onside, and betting banks intact, that to have a service which delivers a healthy number of winners and, it goes without saying, a workable long-term performance (no point in having a service where the ROI is so low that you have to pawn the family silver each time to cover the enormous outlay required on each bet to make it pay).
That’s the blueprint I gave to my contact, who just so happens to be a professional backer, someone I’ve known and worked with for 20+ years, and a guy who I know will hit the brief. He knows the game, understands what’s required of him.
And during the proofing process, to test out these parameters, and see if they can produce the kind of figures that I want (and that members want as well!) he sent through the following message…
“Friday’s strong play has sadly been bet from 9/4 into 11/10, disappointing when the Racing Post tissue had it at 4/1 but we have to say no, strong bets lined up for tomorrow and Sunday”
On the one hand I want winners, to deliver my high strike-rate…
And on the other I want a sustainable long-term profits…
So do we have the bet?
A familiar conundrum for punters
As they say “a winner’s a winner”… so what’s not to like about a horse that’s clearly warm judging by its move in the market.
And after all the prime objective here, the No.1 priority, is results… and this is surely low hanging fruit in this respect. Some easy, low-risk profit.
Maybe so.
But what I said to someone on the back of this, and fact we didn’t go with the bet, was this…
If you consider the toss of a coin (the betting theorist’s go-to example) and you’re offered less than Even money for heads or tails, this being for one call only… you’ve got, as we know, a 50/50 chance of winning.
So there’s a very real possibility that for that one coin toss, you’ll win. And make a profit.
And if you’re offered 10/11, say, that’s a nice return on investment – for an instant win, on a single transaction.
What’s more… in the example of this potential Friday bet, there was a live chance the horse would win. Which means in terms of my embryonic service, I’d have another bet in the winner’s column and a better set of figures with which to go to market.
However…
As we also know, being keen students of the game, although this horse can be seen as one isolated example, where we have a 50/50 chance of backing a winner… and the chance to make a quick, and sizeable (in percent terms) return…
If we back this horse, more to the point if we back the same type of horse as this in subsequent races, over the coming weeks we are guaranteed to make a loss. Because we’re taking under the odds.
The importance of the coin toss example…
If you’re getting less than Evens about a 50/50 probability, repeat that over time, and the punter ALWAYS losses. That’s just simple mathematics working in tandem with the laws of probability.
It’s the reason why Las Vegas was built. Based on the fact that a roulette wheel has a “0” on it, or a “00” in their case. It just tips the odds in favour of the house.
Meaning that whilst any individual casino-dweller might win on one isolated spin/roll/turn, repeat that time after time, and they will inevitably end up losing some, or maybe all, of their money.
Yes, a winner’s a winner. But odds are odds for a reason!
So you walk away from this instant cashout..?
Well, on this occasion we did.
And the horse won well enough in the end. Fully justifiying its market support.
But, and here’s the thing… only for those who got in early doors at 2/1 or thereabouts, and not for the bargain-basement-backers who were jumping on the wave just before it hit the shores of the payout counter.
Yes, they still backed a winner. But if you’re betting 2/1 shots at 11/10, long-term we all know how this will end up.
Too often we kid ourselves that we’ve backed a winner. Who cares about the price?
But it’s a bad habit to fall into, and it’s wrong to rationalise your support of a poor bet after the event just because it won.
You may have won the battle doing this – but you will definitely lose the war.
OPINION: At the heart of this article is the fundamental that odds matter. Value is important. Beacuse without it, whilst you might win the odd bet here or there, all that you’re doing is delaying the inevitable – losing. And, admittedly, when you swerve bets, it’s always the winners that stick in the mind longer than losers! But what we need to do as clear-thinking rational backers, those who try to bet with a reliable and consistent strategy, is to resist the temptation of bagging a short-term (bad value) winner. It really will prove to be a hollow victory.
