Ante-post betting: Is it worth the trouble?

Long-term betting is potentially very lucrative, but often hard work
 

Whenever big sporting events appear on the horizon, my postbag/Inbox invariably gets filled with the same kind of emails…

Point being, a lot of punters love a flutter in the ante-post markets.

And it has a certain appeal, I have to say, to those who have a sizeable enough betting bank (more of this later) and/or those who are on the lookout for what they perceive to be big-value bets that put them one step ahead of the market… or maybe two or three!

So what exactly is an ante-post bet?

I’ve taken this definition from a Daily Telegraph article which you can read in full here.

And although the article centres on horseracing, the same applies for all sports – football, golf, cricket, rugby, tennis, US sports – as you can take out long-term positions about just about anything.

Typically, divisional winners in football, golf Major winners, tennis Grand Slams, cricket county champions or Test Series results, like who’s going to win the Ashes… it’s these kind of blue-riband sporting events which attract the most interest in the ante-post market.

Benefits of ante-post betting

Looking at the Telegragh article, it mentions three…

And these are all clear upsides and benefits to backing long-term.

Primarily, you secure yourself a big price about a horse/team/player that over time shortens up dramatically – often as the bet in question boasts good form after you’ve placed the bet, thus driving the price down as expectation of a win increases.

So back a horse for the Cheltenham Festival at the start of the National Hunt season, watch it rack up a series of wins during the early months of the campaign… and hey presto, your 33/1 bet in October is 16/1 by Christmas, then come the big day in March it’s single figures across the board.

You’ve either secured yourself a huge value price, or else you’ve created a great trading position from where you can make money whether the horse wins or loses!

This is ante-post betting to perfection.

Same as earmarking a football team at the start of the season to do very well (maybe on account of a managerial change, or shrewd transfer dealings) or even to under-achieve and be relegated (for precisely the opposite reasons)… and over time you see the price you took in August look better and better business as the club either flies or flounders – depending on what position you took.

Slightly different to horseracing where, for example, a major rival to your horse might become a non-runner (and there’s no Rule 4 applied) but still, you’ve second guessed the market and either by hard work on the form, or some educated guesswork, knew more than the odds compilers.

Again, no better feeling to call it right when so many were barking up the wrong tree.

So in terms of value, bragging rights, trading options, no R4’s, not to mention the added potential for profits… ante-post betting has some very clear and obvious upsides.

And so, putting the legwork in the off-season, or well in advance of a major sporting event, can provide you with some highly profitable positions.

Drawbacks to placing long-term bets

But it’s not all champagne and roses with bets of this nature. And for every fist-pump after a Cheltenham winner, there’s a kick in the ribs to mark another long range failure.

And when it comes to the ante-post markets, there are some very clear and obvious disadvantages.

I’ll start off with the Telegraph again…

As you can see there’s a lot which can go wrong when you bet months before an event.

Ok, your football team in the Premier League will still play all its matches in a season – so it will take part in the market you’ve played.

However, a horse/golfer/tennis player can easily be injured and not play in the race or tournament where you’ve laid out your hard-earned cash. Some bookies will offer “non runner, no bet” but these are the exceptions, not the norm.

Secondly, imagine backing a horse at 50/1 on the ante-post market for Royal Ascot… you’ve got EW terms of ¼ odds places 1-3… and then the horse comes 4^th.

Point being, on the day of the race you could have got 5 or even 6 each-way places with the layers. Ok, the odds might be shorter but, as they say, “you can’t eat value”.

Add to this the fluctuations in form of your bet, which means instead of beating the market, a few weeks after backing your 40/1 football team to win the Championship… they’re out to 66’s!

Or your golfer misses a slew of cuts, that horse you’ve backed for the Grand National runs like a stuffed pig on seasonal debut.

All of which makes your attempts to beat the market come back and haunt you – often very quickly!!

And, yes, ante-post bets often aren’t offered to new account holders.

I could add further downsides to long-term bets as well…

Most importantly, as I alluded to above, they’re a drain on your funds. Especially if you have a limited betting bank.

When funds are tight, you can’t afford to have a significant portion of your tank held in ante-post markets which may, or may not, pay out months down the line.

And if you can’t back a winner TODAY because you’re waiting on an ante-post bet TOMORROW… is that something you could handle?

Also, liquidity.

Ante-post markets aren’t played to anyway near the same degree as current live markets, and so you’ll either face problems in trying to get your full stake on or, if you’re part of a group or syndicate, you’ll find the odds are cut very quickly.

Should you play ante-post markets?

Much depends on your risk profile, the size of your betting bank, and the quality of your information or form analysis.

Undoubtedly, if there are ticks in all these boxes, then ante-post betting can be a useful addition to your portfolio – whatever the sport.

Value, as ever, is the key to successful gambling. And these markets are full of margins, on numerous different targets, for those who can dissect the “runners-and-riders” and accurately assess which are the right bets to be on. And all the more so if you’re going to trade them later as opposed to being an all-or-nothing backer.

That said, if you’re not careful you’ll either struggle to get your bets on in the first place… or potentially wish you hadn’t done so when your bet drifts in the market, or come the big day you could have backed it at better terms.

Even something as simple, and unpredictable, as the weather can scupper what originally seemed to be a cracking ante-post position. The ground at Epsom, or Aintree, turns soft and all of a sudden your fast-ground fancy is done for.

And so when it comes to the ante-post market look at the field, study the markets, assess your betting bank… but also check the long-term weather forecast!
 

OPINION: I’d be hugely surprised if the ante-post market wasn’t a fertile patch for bookmakers. With there often being so much time between the striking of a bet and it settling, so much can happen that punters are taking a huge risk (and a bigger one than normal) is playing weeks, months, and even years before the event. Yes, there are well-publicised examples of punters collecting on outrageous bets placed years in advance (we’ve all seen them… favourite sons playing for England, home-bred horses winning Group 1’s) but these are little more than cheap advertising material for the layers. Backing winners that are running today is hard enough, adding all the extra variables that time throws into the mix, even allowing for “sexier odds”, makes ante-post betting an even harder nut to crack. So if you’re trying… best of luck.