Why betting on Premier League football is a bad idea

Winning soccer bets away from the world’s biggest, and some say best, league
 
I like betting. And I love betting on football (or soccer if you prefer).

But as with any sport where I have profitable wagers, and make money – which is most of them thankfully! – there are reasons why certain clued-up backers can end up beating the bookies and making money.

And just as other popular betting sports like horseracing, golf, US sports, offer ample opportunity for the amateur and professional backer to profit, there is definitely cash to be made with some shrewd soccer betting tips.

But similar to these other sports, when it comes to football, you have to pick your targets carefully. And by that I mean, choose the right markets to play… ones where the bookmakers are open to attack, and where the low hanging fruit on the profit-tree is to be found.

So similar to previous blogposts about locating the right markets to bet…

You have to be savvy when it comes to your football betting. And not simply follow the crowd and play on the obvious markets, or those where the layers have the advantage.

So what’s wrong with Premier League football bets?

I’ve spoken in other articles about “efficient markets”. In fact read this blog here and I discuss it along with some serious scientific analysis.

And because Premier League football attracts such attention, and so large a weight of money, both pre kick-off and in-play, the markets have become super efficient. Meaning whenever you put a bet into the market, you’re playing at odds which are pretty much correct…

… and a correct market = little/no value.

And no value = no long-term profit.

So you’re up against it right from the get-go.

Furthermore you’re looking at a highly competitive division (or so the promotional blurb would have you believe). Meaning when you bet on the self-styled “most competitive league in the world” you’re wagering on matches which are, in theory, more closely fought and so harder to predict.

Not always the case some might say, but there’s most likely some truth in it.

But more than this there are other factors which make winning Premier League soccer tips hard to find…

So what does this mean for profitable football betting tips?

Put simply, it means they’re harder to come across in the likes of the Premier League.

Whether it’s the markets themselves, or the teams, the stats, whatever, we’re looking at a market which has seen the value eroded… almost down to the bone.

And for those playing on these markets, yes, there is the upside that you can get virtually any amount you want on a top flight game, as liquidity, especially on Betfair, is so good…

But the downside is a much smaller value edge.

Now I have spoken in a previous blogpost about profit (in cash terms) vs ROI… but still, to the average backer, if you’re making a percentage point or two, long-term, where’s the fun in that?

We’d all prefer to look to soccer betting markets with more value.

And this is what I have done… and, to good effect.

Betting on lower league UK football.

Back in 2015 I launched the Scottish Football Income Booster, for the very reason that it targeted an area of betting where the knowledge-base was limited, and so the value-edge was exaggerated.

And many years later, that service continues to outperform pretty much any other football service I have ever seen in operation (with a long-term ROI in excess of 10%) – try and find that rate of return with any other football betting system or syndicate.

I have used the same logic to attack betting on the lower leagues in England.

Leagues where you have less information, more variables, and so a greater margin to make money.

In fact, all the factors which make the Premier League so hard to beat, they tend not to apply once you get outside the rarefied atmosphere of the game’s elite.

Fewer stats, less information in the public domain, weaker squads (teams where one player does have a bigger impact), no VAR, a wider range of playing conditions.

What’s more, being English football, there’s still enough interest from bookies and punters alike, to create markets with decent levels of liquidity i.e. you can get your bets on.

So by channelling my interest on the Championship down to the national League, I have been able to open a Pandora’s Box of profit… that promises to be a highly lucrative source of long-term betting profits.

And so making money at football, good money at that, has once again become a reality.

Something which it can be for you too, if you focus your attention away from the bright lights of the Premier League and kick over a few stones in the lower reaches of English football… think more Northampton than Southampton!

By doing this, and getting the right kind of information (which I have and will share with you), you’ll discover that successful football betting is possible.

OPINION: Betting on markets where everyone else is playing, generally leads to one thing. Small profits, if any. To be truly successful at this game, just as we see in many different walks of life, you often have to think (or act) a little outside the box. And by turning your back on the Premier League, and looking to the lower echelons of English soccer you’ll find ample opportunity to make money at football betting. And if you need a leg-up in finding the right kind of bets, by all means drop me a line (use contact form top RH corner).