Good betting theory v bad practice
Why even the best betting minds can fail to make money.
I was listening to a podcast the other day.
It was about betting, and the contributors touched on a point that I’ve come across time and again during my work in this business over the past 30+ years… but never really sat down and tried to articulate.
So here goes!
What they were talking about on this particular show was how some backers (and my guess is that it’s far from a minority) are good in theory, bad in practice operators when it comes to gambling.
Able to do a lot of the basics right…
But then unable to convert all this preparatory work into real-time results or, more to the point, hard cash.
And this is what got me thinking, ahead of penning this article, about what constitutes good betting in theory… but the ways in which this commendable investment of much time and effort can get wasted. And so profits missed.
To illustrate the point, let me tell you a story…
The best tipster that ever lived.
The example that readily comes to mind is a professional gambler (and well-known tipster) who I worked with during the late 1990’s and through into the early noughties.
He was, granted by his own somewhat overblown admission, a genius. The best judge in the country, bar none, of certain flat horses and national hunt runners.
Remember, this was in the pre-internet age. So he kept meticulous, hand-written records of all the relevant data. Watched every race going. Created his own unique ratings. Produced a personal tissue for every single race of interest. Spent hour upon hour of each week, improving his database (or rolodex as it was then – countless boxes filled with cards covered in all sorts of pre-race annotations and in-play comments) and increasing his chances of backing winners.
He knew the game inside out. And therefore had a significantly greater chance than most of making a decent profit.
Besides this he ran a successful telephone tipping service, and imparted his words of wisdom to a sizeable following every morning and evening without fail. Births, deaths and marriages… fire, flood or famine… no matter. He was on the phone daily with his horseracing bets for Newmarket, sharing his wisdom for Cheltenham, banker bets for Kempton, or nailed-on good things for the weekend’s big handicap.
More than this he was a raconteur of note, without doubt a bon viveur, and someone who could be the very best of company.
In short, the complete package.
And for that time, there was nobody better suited (in his humble opinion) to make an absolute fortune from betting.
But he didn’t.
And where he went wrong…
You see, here’s the thing.
And it’s the very theme which the podcast I was listening to touched upon, and what got me thinking before writing this post.
You can have all the necessary theory in the world, have done all the work, and have all the bases covered. Made sure that every single duck is in a row.
But when it comes to the practice of (1) bet selection (2) staking and (3) post-event reaction… if you don’t have these vital, practical aspects of your betting in as good a shape, and as finely honed, as your preparation (theory). Well, it can all count for nothing.
Turn a master analyst, into an amateur bettor.
Flip the best bet finder, into the worst bet maker.
Swap a potentially winning backer, into a losing punter.
And this is exactly how it played out for this undoubtedly talented and highly knowledgeable horseracing expert. Because that’s what he was. He could talk anybody under the table about theory, and why this horse was better than that one, why such-and-such a race played out this way and not that. Pluck endless figures and reams of examples from thin air.
But he didn’t make the game pay. Not as it should, given all this knowledge and expertise.
Why? Because when it came to the practicalities of betting. The sound and sensible building blocks that make successful punters just that, successful. He was lacking.
Extravagant multiples. Over-staking. Impulsive loss chasing. A lack of restraint or, more likely, the inability to sit-out a potential opportunity (all races are opportunities of course, but not necessarily good ones) as FOMO, the fear of missing out on a winner, got the better of him. All added to a stubbornness of character, and unwavering belief he was right AT ALL TIMES – both a benefit and a curse for any backer.
It was this lack of discipline, clarity of thought, and clear-headedness, which time and again did for him.
He could dissect the races. Pick the right horses. Locate the best value.
Do it with his eyes closed.
Ticked every box when it came to the theoretical side of betting.
Just failed to translate all this expertise into the kind of physical, tangible, financial rewards that such knowledge should have delivered. In short, bad practice.
Ultimately the impact wasn’t limited to betting gains.
School fees went unpaid, mortgage payments were missed, phone bills escalated… I remember he once told me about drinking a vintage, eye-waterinngly expensive bottle of Chateau Laffitte with his midweek fish supper – because he couldn’t afford to go shopping! It’s all he had in the house, saved for a special occasion… and not Tuesday night’s tea!
The moral of the story.
Remember, this is someone who did this for a living.
Horses. Horses. Horses.
Did it all day, every day, and still had within him some fundamental flaws that severely impacted on his overall success. Because with an equal, corresponding ability, practically speaking, to all his form analysis, market study and basic betting theory… he’d have cleaned up. No question.
But he was his own worst enemy. Repeatedly.
And if this can be the Achilles Heel to a so-called “professional gambler” just think how it can effect a part-time or amateur operator.
It comes back to a core theme within betting that all of us can look at a racecard, or scan through the papers on a busy Saturday, and pick winners. That’s an ability we all have.
What sorts the wheat from the chaff, and successful gamblers from losing punters, is the ability to correctly select, and efficiently stake, our bets… and then, win or lose, to continue with our next bets in the same rational, analytical, almost unemotional, way.
It’s easy to be a good judge.
Much harder, as this story illustrates, to be a good punter.
OPINION: This story is 100% true. I only leave out the tipster’s name because, well, if you know, you know. But a few older readers might have a fair idea who I’m talking about. An exaggerated example it might be, but it remains a salutary tale. That in many walks of life, betting being the one under discussion here, we can have great theoretical knowledge (or so we think) but can often fail to translate this into practical success. Whether we strive to improve ourselves in this department, or seek professional advice from others, it matters not. But certainly with betting, if you can marry good theory with effective practice, then you will be on the right track to financial success.
