Title: Before I shoot off to London…

Date: September 17th 2013

I’m booked on the 10:56 down to London this morning to meet a new racing contact…

And because I won’t be back until well after tonight’s matches have kicked off…

I want to say a few words about the return of the Champions League, and the popular over/under 2.5 goals market.

Now when it comes to football…

I don’t currently offer a proper, top-end advisory subscription service like I do for racing (Pro Backer)…

Golf (Keith Elliott’s Premier Golf service)…

And tennis (Tennis Betting Service).

But at some point this season… sooner rather than later I hope… I’ll give you a shout with more details about a couple of experts who I’ve been watching like a hawk.

One of them. I’ll call him J just for now. Well, he’s been sending me over/under 2.5 goals bets before matches.

And although it’s too early to start slapping him on the back, he’s not doing too badly.

From 16 bets so far this season, his 9 winners put him in front.

Anyway, back to the Champions League

There’s a widely held view amongst punters that the early group matches end up being tight affairs, with neither side wishing to give much away.

So is this backed up by the stats? Straight answer… yes.

Taking the last five years as a sample (480 matches exactly), the early games make-up at under 2.5 goals most of the time.

If you didn’t already know…

There are six matchdays in each Champions League group, and over the past five years, 125 of matchdays 1-3 have finished under 2.5 goals (with 115 over 2.5 goals).

And as for matchdays 4-6…

There’s a 10 game swing the other way, as the stats show 125 ending over 2.5 goals.

So if you were betting blindly…

You’d have the stats on your side if you can identify the cagey, do-not-lose matches, and went with a bet on the under 2.5 goals market.

Here’s one you might want to check out…

Manchester City away to Viktoria Plzen tonight. New boss Pellegrini won’t want City to lose, Plzen have some good form at home in Europe in recent seasons… under 2.5 goals is odds against (2.2).

Right. I don’t want to have to do a Usain Bolt at the station so I’m jumping in the car and getting going.

I’ll bob you another email later this week.

Kind Regards,

Matthew Walton

P.S. Not already a member of Betting Wages?

Click here to register for FREE… and when you return to the front page, simply enter your email address in the box below the red arrow.



  Facebook  Google+