Title: Why I’d be wary of this weekend’s Guineas favourites
Date: May 3rd 2014
I’m just watching The Morning Line on Channel 4…
I can hear them all chirping away in the background right now!
Because today’s a big day on the Flat with the first Classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas, being run this afternoon.
And then back at Newmarket tomorrow, it’s the 1000 Guineas.
Probably explains why Jim McGrath & co are going into overdrive at the moment – “this one’s fancied”… “that one can’t win”… “and as for the others, well let, me tell you…”.
All the usual stuff.
Enough hot air to fill a balloon!
So which horse is going to win the Guineas?
When it comes to the top level races – Group and Listed class, along with the Classics – there’s plenty of form to go on.
There are lists of past results as long as your arm, stretching back years and years.
What’s more, every bookmaker will give you their ‘independent’ best advice.
And then of course, you’ll never go short of opinion from the TV pundits!
But if you want to back winners at Newmarket this weekend…
Strip these races down to the bare bones.
And just look at the stats. Because this often works best.
Now you might remember, if you were with me at the time, last year I sent out a series of “Race Trends” (Cheat Sheets) for the big meetings on the Flat. With horses being ranked on the basis of their profile, compared to previous winners.
These trends returned some very impressive results.
I didn’t start until Royal Ascot, but by the time the season ended with the Cesarewitch in October, the top rated horses had returned a profit of 28.54 points.
Even backing to £50/point, that’s a handy £1,427 pick-up.
So there’s something in these trends, that’s for sure.
This year I’ve got a new analyst in place… a real anorak when it comes to the stats, so much so I call him The Trend-Spotter.
He’s already begun working on this season’s races… starting with this weekend’s 1000 and 2000 Guineas.
Click on the link above and take a look at all the figures relating to this weekend’s two big races.
• The major weakness in the form of 2000 Guineas favourite Kingman
• And why market leader Rizeena can be opposed in the 1000 Guineas
This is what the trends say.
And in the process these guides have flagged up some big value alternatives.
Of course, if you want to listen to the pundits, you’ll get no end of opinion from Rishi Persad & friends…
But throughout last season these stats proved a very reliable guide to finding winners in the big races.
So worth your while taking a quick look at the stats for this weekend’s big races.
Right… time for a quick cuppa before getting on with the day’s work.