Betting Wages Australian Open De-Brief

 

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Title: A few betting gems after the Oz Open

Date: January 30th 2014

 
Did you see the first tennis Grand Slam of the season, the Australian Open?

Two odds-on favourites…

Both beaten.

One first-time major winner…

Wawrinka at 50/1 in the men’s singles.

And another champion winning at a tasty double-figure price as Na Li took the women’s title at upwards of 16/1.

So now the dust has settled, I asked the brains behind the Tennis Betting Service I run to give you his take on the action Down Under.

There’s bound to be some betting gems you can pick-up from this lot…

Plus…

Stick the 4 Players to Watch mentioned further down this email in your diary (or smartphone!) as they could easily be winning in the future at jaw-dropping odds.

Australian Open (Men)

In lifting the trophy, Stanislas Wawrinka at 51 (50/1) did upset previous Grand Slam form.

  • The Swiss player became the first, maiden major winner since Juan Martin Del Potro (US Open 2009). And along with Del Potro became only the second player outside of the leading quartet (Nadal, Djokovic, Federer & Murray) to win a Slam since the Australian Open 2005.
  • At the age of 28, the Swiss player became the oldest first-time major winner since Goran Ivanisevic (Wimbledon 2001).
  • Wawrinka had never won a ATP Tour 500 event or a Masters Series title prior to his Melbourne victory… he had only 5 career wins to his name, all in low level tournamens (ATP Tour 250).
  • His previous best in a Slam was the US Open 2013… lost Semi-Finals.
  • In beating Novak Djokovic and then Rafael Nadal, Wawrinka overcame two huge career head-to-head deficits… he had lost his last 14 matches against Djokovic (overall 2:15) and had lost every previous meeting with Nadal (0:12).
  • But there were some distinct trends you can use for your future betting…

    The seedings were proved accurate as 7 of the top 8 seeds made the Quarter- Finals (only Del Potro – subsequently diagnosed with a wrist injury – failed to make the latter stages).

    What’s more, the No.1 seed, Rafael Nadal, did make the final… and but for an injury may well have won.

    And despite being available at 51, Wawrinka was still inside the top ten of the betting, in a field of 128.

    Yep…

    The usual questions re-appeared. Like the age of Federer and the health of Nadal. But the domination of the ‘Big Four’ is still far from over.

    Remember…

    Three of them (Nadal, Federer and, a not 100% match-fit, Murray were all drawn in the same half of the draw) making the kind of upset we saw, much more likely.

    Now coming out of the tournament, here are
    a couple of players for your notebook…

    Short-term player to watch: Grigor Dimitrov

    This guy has long been touted as ‘one for the future’… and a career best effort (lost to Nadal in QFs) showed a definite improvement. With confidence and consistency he can become a top 10 player.

    Long-term player to watch: Nick Kyrgios

    The Aussie youngster is a player to watch in the coming years. Still a teenager, don’t expect too much in the next 12-18 months… but he looks a talent, especially on hard courts.

    Right. What about the women?

    Australian Open (Women)

    As for the women, the big news was the premature demise of Serena Williams, the 17-time major winner. She was beaten in the Quarter-Finals.

    And in winning the title, Na Li confirmed her standing as a credible Grand Slam winner and franked the form of recent Australian Open champions.

  • The Chinese player had won a major before (French Open 2011).
  • She was a previous finalist in Melbourne (2013 & 2011).
  • Li continued the impressive showing of seeds in the women’s singles Down Under… the previous 10 years had only seen one unseeded winner, and only two champions outside of seeds No.1-No.4 (Li was the No.4 seed).
  • Even despite the loss of the shorter-priced favourite (Williams was 1.72) this event produced less of a surprise than the men’s event.

    But only in terms of the winner.

    Compared to the men, only 3 of the top 8 seeds made the Quarter-Finals.

    So it followed previous performance data which shows the women’s game to be more volatile than the men.

    Here are a couple more notebook
    players from Melbourne…

    Short-term player to watch: Simona Halep

    The Romanian has now secured a top 10 ranking and aged just 22, she’s fully capable of rising further. Watch out for her in the upcoming clay court season.

    Long-term player to watch: Eugenie Bouchard

    A run to the SFs cemented the 19-year-old Canadian’s reputation as one to keep an eye on. She’s now made the top 20 in the WTA rankings… and is expected to climb a lot further.

    So what was the upshot
    from the Australian Open?

    Well, despite some notable surprises, the ‘cream still rises to the top’ in the majors.

    And whilst this trend should lead any form student to focus their attention at the top of the betting market…

    Be very careful!

    Backing players at odds-on in the outright market remains a poor value play.

    Of course, as we’ll see later in the year with Nadal at the French Open, there are exceptions. But these are rare.

    Anyway, that’s a bit of a catch-up from my tennis brains… just to prove my portfolio of services aren’t just about racing.

    The next time I open the doors to my Tennis Betting Service

    Like I did before the Australian Open…

    I’ll give you a shout and invite you in.

    Kind Regards,
    Matthew Walton signature
    Matthew

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