Title: Latest update on “The Scotsman”
Date: September 15th 2015
Having been involved in the betting industry for the last 20 years…
I can't remember seeing this much interest in the build-up to launching a new advisory service.
I understand the opportunity to win some serious money this winter from targeted bets specifically on Scottish football is certainly an attractive proposition…
But even so, I've been really surprised that 397 people (including you) have opted-in to the Priority Notification List to be kept informed about my Scottish football expert, and that’s why I’m sending you this email.
1. The good news "the Scotsman" confirmed to me last Thursday.
2. The fact that if his results continue to perform as they've done over his first 36 bets, there could be a chunky pile of readies - as much as £5,350 – up for grabs come the end of the season.
3. Why I'll be looking to commit to him for the rest of the season, and what impact this has on your potential involvement.
Well, to answer this, I need to go back to the comments I made after I'd met him in Glasgow on July 1st.
As I said back then…
"There could be a slight fly-in-the-ointment on the horizon in terms of a potential conflict of interest where he wouldn't be able to share all his bets.
You see, this guy is no mug!
Only recently he was involved with an Asian-based private investment syndicate. And prior to that role, his glittering footballing CV includes stints with a UK spread betting firm and other fixed odds bookies.
So he's on the radar for others to snap up his betting know-how and expertise.
If he were to be poached for a full-time role, say, with a leading spread betting firm, his new employer 'might' insist that he can't do any extracurricular activities – like sharing bets with you and me."
What I said back in early July has always been a real concern of mine, so when "the Scotsman" told me on August 28th that he'd been offered a consultancy role to advise a team of quants about how to maximise their profits from Scottish football… well, I thought "oh no, here we go."
['Quants' by the way is short for 'quantitative analysts'. Basically, computer and maths geeks who make money from trading based on statistics, but who need the input of professionals like "the Scotsman" to bring much needed betting skills and knowledge of footballing factors such as player profiles and match analysis.]
Anyway, the good news is that last Thursday morning, he confirmed he was definitely on-side to supply his bets for the entire season.
He emailed me to say…
"I'm happy to proceed with sending my bets to you for the full season, for all Scottish leagues. I met the quant guys on Monday and I don't see a conflict of interest there as I won't have access to the prices they're betting off."
And he also reiterated…
"My anonymity is really important to me, but I know you're aware of that."
As you know from my previous emails, he got off to a flying start after his first 21 bets…
And his 22nd bet was a cracking winner on Falkirk to beat Partick in the Scottish League Cup at 6 (or 5/1).
Since then though, up to today, he's basically been treading water which, as you know yourself as a punter, is only to be expected having kicked off with such a hot streak.
His performance figures currently show…
• 36 bets - all straightforward home or away wins
• 17 winners
• 47.22% winning strike rate
• 31.86% ROI
• 22.94 points profit to an average stake of exactly 2 points, which works out at a cash take of £1,147 in the space of just over 6 weeks at £50 per point.
[If you send me an email to email@example.com I can send you a full bet-by-bet breakdown of his bets.]
Now if he were to carry on at this sort of winning strike rate and ROI…
And I can come to a mutually beneficial commercial arrangement with him (more about this in a second)…
Between early October and next April (in other words, the rest of the season), I wouldn't be out of line in saying that you could win yourself £5,350.
My plan has always been to judge "the Scotsman" over his first 50 bets before I'd be willing to launch a new Sottish ONLY advisory service with him supplying the bets.
As I've said, he's now sent me 36 bets so over the next couple of weekends, we'll be almost there.
But it's not realistic for me to wait until bet #50 to then start my financial negotiations.
If I think he's the real-deal (and I do) then I need to secure a deal with him within the next fortnight.
Barring a complete and utter disaster with his next 14 bets (which I don't expect to happen)…
My commitment to "the Scotsman" will be for the rest of the season up to the end of April.
Why will I be doing this?
Well, you wouldn't get a top club signing a star striker on a very short-term contract would you?
Scoring goals, like backing winners, can only be judged over a decent period of time…
And that's why I don't want to put "the Scotsman" in a position where he feels like he's on trial at the end of every week, or month, because no matter what the sport or who the expert is, results can go up, down and sideways.
As I've already said, his most recent results have been flat but this is what happens with betting (even for professionals). The only true test is to judge him over a full season, meaning I'll be inviting you to get involved from early next month to the end of next April.
This means you won't have the option of trying his bets out for a month and then dropping out. It's going to be a 7 month long commitment, just like it will be for me and "the Scotsman".
To put your mind at ease though…
I will be putting in place some kind of Money-Back-Guarantee Deal for you, and I'll come back to you soon about this once I've ironed out my contract dealings.
And it's something I've already flagged up in previous emails.
There's no way a Scottish-only advisory service could handle 397 members, especially with bets in the lower leagues where bookies will no doubt be fearful of taking financial hits.
So far, 64% of the bets I've seen have been in these lower leagues - the Championship, Leagues 1 and 2, plus a couple of Scottish Cup bets.
Now if I look back to when I launched a specialist South American Asian Handicap service last August called The Gibraltar Syndicate, I initially only put up 35 spots so I could carefully monitor how the odds were holding up…
And having learnt a lot from this cautious approach, I'm going down a very similar route with "the Scotsman".
Because I believe there will be more scope for odds to hold up (particularly bets in the SPL), I'll be looking for 50 members to come on board.
Right, you're now up to speed with everything that's been going on and I've made you aware this opportunity is only for serious-minded members who are prepared to see out the rest of the season.
If I've managed to come to a deal with "the Scotsman" next week, I'll be in touch to tell you straightaway because I'll then know the exact subscription terms and the details of the Money-Back-Guarantee Deal…
And you'll be able to make a decision whether you want to be one of the 50 members allowed in.
If you want to know anything else in the meantime, or you want a copy of the results, send me an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.